Fannie Mae‘s Economic & Strategic Research Group has launched the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI). This new tool summarizes the results of its National Housing Survey (NHS) a single, monthly prediction to help industry participants make informed decisions.
Fannie Mae says the HPSI reflects more than four years of data and is exclusive to housing. It is based on the answers to six key NHS questions concerning Americans’ evaluations of market conditions and their attitudes related to home purchase decisions. These 6 questions include:
- In general, do you think this is a very good time to BUY a house, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to buy a house?
- In general, do you think this is a very good time to SELL a house, a somewhat good time, a somewhat bad time, or a very bad time to buy a house?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home prices in general will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now?
- During the next 12 months, do you think home mortgage interest rates will go up, go down, or stay the same as where they are now?
- How concerned are you that you will lose your job in the next twelve months? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not at all concerned that you will lose your job in the next twelve months?
- How does your current monthly household income compare to what it was twelve months ago? (fanniemae.com)
According to the August 2015 HPSI, the index fell 0.5 points to 80.8, maintaining the decline from the all-time high in June. The HPSI is up 5.3 points since this time last year. Here are some highlights from the index:
- The percent of respondents who said it’s a good time to buy a house rose to 63%, increasing two percentage points from last month’s all-time survey low;
- Those who said it’s a good time to sell rose two percentage points to 47%, while those who said it’s a bad time to sell also increased to 44%;
- Those who said that home prices will increase over the next 12 months fell to 47%, while the percent who said that home prices will decrease rose to 9%;
- The share who expect mortgage interest rates to increase in the next 12 months rose three percentage points to 54%, while the share who expect mortgage rates will decrease remained steady at 5%;
- The share who say they are not concerned with losing their job rose to 83%, while the share of respondents who say they are concerned with losing their job fell to 16%;
- Those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago fell to 24%, while those who say it’s significantly lower fell to 12%.
The Fannie Mae National Housing survey polled 1,000 Americans via telephone to inquire their attitudes towards renting and purchasing homes. They are asked more than 100 questions aside from the 6 main topics for the HPSI. For additional information about the survey and its process, view the Technical Notes via Fannie Mae’s website.
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